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Lunes 24 de noviembre, 2014 | 9:58 am

El impacto económico del narcotráfico en México

Simón Vargas | Miércoles 13 de junio, 2012
Simón Vargas

El narcotráfico impacta directa e indirectamente a la economía y de acuerdo con la Oficina de la Naciones Unidas Contra la Droga y el Delito (UNODC), se pierde productividad por muerte y/o lesiones, y disminuyen las inversiones en capital humano

 

En los últimos años, el acontecer social, político y económico de nuestro país ha estado marcado por la desigualdad, la impunidad, la corrupción, la violencia, el desempleo, la migración, el narcotráfico. En ese contexto, el crimen organizado ha encontrado una oportunidad única para integrar a sus filas a miles de personas, especialmente jóvenes, -que poco tienen que perder- y hacer de la ilegalidad un negocio altamente redituable. La violencia derivada del narcotráfico posee un potencial reconfigurador del ambiente social, instaura el temor como lazo colectivo, acelera el debilitamiento del contrato social y seduce a miles de jóvenes con la promesa de poder y dinero, en detrimento del contrato social y el estado de derecho ante la incapacidad del gobierno para hacer frente a la problemática.

 

Sin embargo, ¿Cuál es el estado que guarda la economía tras casi seis años de lucha contra el narcotráfico? ¿Quiénes ganan y quienes pierden en el negocio que representa el tráfico de drogas? La Doctora en Gobierno y miembro del Programa en Inequidad y Política Social en la Universidad de Harvard, Viridiana Ríos, señala en el estudio “Evaluando el impacto económico del tráfico de Drogas en México” a partir de datos de la consultoría ARegional y proyecciones de la PGR, que en el año 2008, aproximadamente 468 mil personas se dedicaban a actividades relacionadas con el narcotráfico.

 

Dicha cifra ubicó al narcotráfico cómo el quinto mayor empleador en el país, sólo por detrás de las industrias de productos metálicos y maquinaria (2 millones 079 mil personas); de alimentos, bebidas y tabaco (1 millón 905 mil personas); substancias químicas (1 millón 437 mil personas); y textiles y pieles (1 millón 132 mil personas). Además, en el documento se precisa que los “empleados” del narcotráfico representaban cinco veces más que el total de la industria maderera nacional (84 mil empleados); entre 50 y 100 mil empleados más que las industrias editorial, del papel, metales básicos y no metálica, y tres veces más que el personal de PEMEX –la petrolera con mayor número de empleados en el mundo– la cual reportó en ese año, aproximadamente 150 mil empleados.

 

Por otra parte, el estudio realizado por la Doctora Ríos, destacó que el narcotráfico ha extendido su influencia en el campo mexicano ya que los salarios y beneficios laborales que ofrece son mucho mejores. Un campesino llega a percibir hasta 400 mil pesos por hectárea cosechada y un salario de alrededor de 300 pesos diarios. Aunado a ello, los narcotraficantes les ofrecen “seguridad social” mediante el pago de una fracción del valor total de la cosecha, en caso de que ésta se pierda por fenómenos naturales no controlables. En tanto, un productor de maíz recibe en promedio 12 mil pesos por hectárea cosechada, un sueldo de sólo 54 pesos diarios, y no cuenta con seguridad social.

 

A este respecto, en el año 2007, el Magistrado Ricardo García Villalobos, en ese entonces Presidente del Tribunal Superior Agrario, precisó que de las 31 millones de hectáreas destinadas a la agricultura, en 9 de ellas se sembraba mariguana y amapola y sólo en 8.2 se sembraba maíz. Llama la atención que las hectáreas en las cuales se sembró mariguana y amapola en ese año, son equiparables a la superficie del estado de Oaxaca. De manera paralela, la Universidad Michoacana San Nicolás de Hidalgo publicó un estudio en el que se destacó que el precio de la mariguana y la amapola era 16 veces mayor al de la vainilla, y 50 veces mayor al de la almendra, dos de los productos más redituables.

 

No obstante, la Doctora Ríos señala que por cada 100 campesinos involucrados en la producción de droga hay al menos 56 personas más implicadas en otras etapas del tráfico de drogas: químicos, abogados, laboratoristas, comerciantes, transportistas y elementos de seguridad y vigilancia, conocidos como sicarios o pistoleros. A efecto de establecer un “estado de derecho” sobre sus transacciones y para proteger sus negocios, los narcotraficantes conforman pequeños ejércitos de jóvenes que son capacitados en labores de protección y defensa y que perciben un sueldo mínimo de entre 10 y 12 mil pesos, además de pagos adicionales por concepto de trata de personas, extorsiones, secuestros y otros delitos.

 

El tráfico de drogas beneficia a la economía a través de la generación de inversiones y a la derrama de efectivo, los narcotraficantes mexicanos siguen el patrón de sus pares colombianos e invierten principalmente en bienes raíces, ganado y otras formas de comercio legal, sin embargo, también los campesinos usan sus ganancias para construir y mejorar sus casas, comprar ganado y aves de corral e incluso lo ahorran para ir a trabajar a los Estados Unidos, como lo reseña el periodista Jorge Fernández Menéndez en su libro “De los maras a los zetas. Los secretos del narcotráfico, de Colombia a Chicago”.

 

En este contexto, el narcotráfico impacta directa e indirectamente a la economía y de acuerdo con la Oficina de la Naciones Unidas Contra la Droga y el Delito (UNODC), se pierde productividad por muerte y/o lesiones, disminuyen las inversiones en capital humano y los costos de atención médica, psicológica y servicios jurídicos se incrementan considerablemente.

 

Por otra parte, la violencia derivada del tráfico de drogas incentiva la migración y la inmigración. Miles de mexicanos han optado por salir de las ciudades del norte del país que son afectadas por la violencia –principalmente Tamaulipas, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Coahuila y Nuevo León– para radicar en estados del centro del país o en el Distrito Federal. En tanto, aquellos que cuentan con mayores recursos económicos o que operan un negocio propio, y son víctimas de extorsiones, han dejado el país para instalarse en los Estados Unidos o Canadá. Dicho fenómeno es peligroso para la economía mexicana, ya que de acuerdo con el World Development Report 2005 del Banco Mundial, “las empresas transnacionales no desean invertir en un país en el cual puedan estar en peligro sus intereses, y dónde además pueden ser víctimas del cobro de cuotas para poder operar”.

 

Pese a que es complicado calcular cómo la violencia está afectando el desarrollo económico, la Doctora Viridiana Ríos señala que el estudio “Violencia en América Latina: Epidemiología y Costos” elaborado por Juan Luis Londoño y Rodrigo Guerrero en el año 2000 a petición del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, reportó que el total de las pérdidas económicas representaron el 12.3% del PIB total de nuestro país, y que el costo total del tráfico de drogas se ubicó entre 0.43 a 1.43 billones de dólares anuales.

 

Finalmente, la corrupción y la demanda local de drogas, son dos elementos que impactan negativamente la economía mexicana. “La corrupción reduce la competitividad, aumenta el costo para hacer negocios y genera incertidumbre, reduciendo el atractivo de inversión y por ende, la capacidad de competir en mercados globales”. En tanto, el abuso de drogas, debido a la creación de una demanda local de estupefacientes, repercute en términos de productividad y pérdidas de capital humano. De acuerdo con el reporte de la UNODC “Consecuencias económicas y sociales del abuso y el tráfico de drogas”, quienes abusan de substancias ilegales tienen accidentes de 2 a 4 veces más en el trabajo, y se ausentan de 2 a 3 veces más que otros empleados.

 

Ante este panorama, el narcotráfico debe ser analizado desde una perspectiva multifactorial, ya que su influencia ha aumentado exponencialmente en los últimos años, y ante la falta de oportunidades educativas y laborales, ha ido ocupando nuevos espacios y cooptando cada vez a un mayor número de mexicanos. La lucha contra el narcotráfico debe continuar en el próximo sexenio, pero con una nueva estrategia que contemple políticas públicas que incentiven la educación, la cultura, la inversión –principalmente en el sector agropecuario–, la transparencia, el combate a la corrupción y a la pobreza, la prevención de las adicciones y el tratamiento a los consumidores, con estas acciones se podría estimular la promoción de México como destino de inversión.

 

Es urgente ponderar los temas más sensibles y riesgosos de la agenda nacional a efecto de tomar decisiones que posibiliten la estabilidad y el desarrollo del país.

 

 

Simón Vargas Aguilar

Analista en temas de Seguridad y Justicia

 

Email: simon.9@prodigy.net.mx

Twitter: @simonvargasa

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/simonvargasa

 

 

 

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